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Money Supply Watch - October 2008 - final data

The final data for October 2008 indicates that the money supply has gone up by 8% as compared to October last year.

It will be important to watch whether or not this trend hold up over the next 2 months. If it does, it is very likely that that the current asset market crash will bottom out in about 1 year from now.

Money Supply Watch - Oct. 27th 2008 a.k.a Confetti the Dollar

As per data provided by the Federal Reserve on 10/27/2008 the money supply has grown by 15.3% to now $2.12 trillion. I have become a little more cautious about data provided throughout the month, but this is unprecedented.

Aside from private checking accounts and currency, the most eyecatching number is the amount of money that the treasury is holding in federal reserve deposits: $106 billion. This is unprecedented. As far back as my data goes there has never been anything near this. The largest number ever thus far had been reported on May 5th 1997: $32.4 billion.

Is this the beginning of operation "Confetti the Dollar"?

Change is in the Air

No matter who you are or what you believe in, the victory speech on November 4th 2008 didn't leave a whole lot to ask for. It was impossible to miss the sense of fulfillment, joy, and liberation from agony, partisan divide, bigotry, and disrespect that had been plaguing this country for decades. Barack Obama represents a generation that is full of hope. Hope, as opposed to fear, is a very unruly emotion which rarely ever stands a chance in politics. Obama has helped unleash it.

I supported Bob Barr and Ron Paul and still find my beliefs reflected in their ideals. It is impossible for a libertarian to be moved by speeches from mainstream politicians. But Obama has shown me that he is not one of them. His speech has moved me and given me a genuine sense of assurance which I had been looking for during his campaign and in his programme.

Every true libertarian must have rejoiced during passages of his speech:

"...There are many who won't agree with every decision or policy I make as president, and we know that government can't solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree..."

"...Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House — a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress..."

"...As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, 'We are not enemies, but friends... Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection.' And, to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn, I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your president, too..."

"...Tonight, we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity and unyielding hope..."

These words have resounded throughout the country. From the shores of Southern California all the way up to the waterways of Maine, people have listened. From rainy Seattle down to tropical Miami, America has heard the calling. From the San Francisco Bay to Lady Liberty, from the islands of Hawaii to the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, America has listened in unity and approved the message.

Everywhere in America, it is impossible to deny it, change is in the air. From partisan divide and bigotry, change is in the air. From international hostility, ridicule and needless wars, change is in the air. From imperialism and megalomania, change is in the air. From Patriot Acts, unwarranted wiretapping, secret prisons and tribunals, and infringements upon our most basic civil liberties, change is in the air.

Now is the time to make that change happen. But a democracy is nothing without a consistently vigilant people. It is up to us to help President Obama help us. Where we agree, we need to show him that he's on the right way. Where we believe he is wrong, we need to make our voices heard. This is what he himself asked of us. He is a man that listens, a genuinely curious man who welcomes new ideas.

Thus I will remain highly critical of Obama's economic plans. If he embarks upon policies that are bound to fail and cause more problems down the road, I will voice my opinion. But right now is not the time for that.

In 1972, America had a stab at electing a true candidate by the people and for the people. But America wasn't ready for George McGovern. He was ahead of his time. His acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, however, still remains timeless. More than 35 years later, America has woken up to his call:

"...From secrecy and deception in high places; come home, America

From military spending so wasteful that it weakens our nation; come home, America.

From the entrenchment of special privileges in tax favoritism; from the waste of idle lands to the joy of useful labor; from the prejudice based on race and sex; from the loneliness of the aging poor and the despair of the neglected sick -- come home, America.

Come home to the affirmation that we have a dream. Come home to the conviction that we can move our country forward.

Come home to the belief that we can seek a newer world, and let us be joyful in that homecoming, for this “is your land, this land is my land -- from California to New York island, from the redwood forest to the gulf stream waters -- this land was made for you and me...”

America is coming home.

President Obama, I congratulate you on your outstanding accomplishment. I welcome the prospect of the change you intend to bring. And even though I don't agree on everything with you, after years of disappointments and frustration, it feels good to finally be able to say: "This president is my president, too."

Money Sypply Watch - 10/20/08

As per data provided for 10/20/08, The money supply has grown by more than 6% since October 2007 to now $1.96 trillion.

Money Supply Watch - Sep. 2008 - final data

This article has moved to http://www.economicsjunkie.com/money-supply-september-2008/



The final money supply data for September indicates that the US money supply did not grow as much as we expected based on data provided during the month of September. The annual growth has barely exceeded 3%. It has grown to $1.93 trillion. However, the deflationary tendency cannot yet be considered as broken, further corrections in asset, commodity, consumer prices and a further strengthening of the dollar can be expected, unless the money supply growth once again increases this month.

Money Supply Watch - Sep. 29 2008

As per data supplied on Sep. 29 2008 the annual money supply growth has jumped up by an unprecedented percentage from one month to another, to now 8%. While over the past months the money supply was gradually approaching a zero growth scenario, it appears as though the month of September has seen a dramatic turnaround. The total money supply has grown from $1.87 trillion at the end of August to $2 trillion by the end of September.

The true money supply gives us indications about future development of asset and consumer prices and booms and recessions.